A third world war is plausible. Here's how to avoid one

No one wakes up today thinking that a world war is about to break out, yet, according to two historians, history teaches us that the most devastating wars often begin precisely when no one expects it. Their argument is stark: major global conflicts, such as World War I, are not the result of a deliberate choice by nations, but often arise from miscalculations, heightened nationalism and, above all, from decisions made by a very small number of people – who are not always up to the task. Consider how, in 1914, a handful of leaders, blinded by pride and convinced that the war would last only a few weeks, plunged the world into four years of carnage. Today, the dynamics are not so different: the destinies of billions of people are decided by a handful of politicians, who are often trapped in their own internal agendas and unable to see the real consequences. When interviewed on this very topic, one of the historians said: “The key is to understand that great wars can happen by accident.” Here’s a concrete example: during the Balkan crisis, none of the European leaders thought that the assassination of an archduke would lead to a world conflict. Yet, due to a chain of mistakes and misunderstandings, that is exactly what happened within a few weeks. What is disconcerting is that most history books lead us to believe that wars are inevitable, but the more disturbing truth is that often it would take very little—one phone call, one different choice, a modicum of self-control—to prevent them. Here is the real game changer: it is not great historical forces that push us into war, but the personal failure of those in power. And if you think about it, today, with tensions between superpowers and nationalisms rearing their heads, the risk of fatal mistakes is once again looming. However, there is one insight that is almost always overlooked: the responsibility does not lie solely with leaders. It also lies with those who put pressure on them, applaud them, or push them to take “the strong line.” The real question is: Who controls those who rule us? The phrase to remember is this: World War III would not be a choice, but a mistake. If this perspective has resonated with you, on Lara Notes you can declare I'm In — it's not a like; it's your way of saying that this idea is now part of your worldview. And if you happen to discuss it with someone, perhaps over dinner or on public transportation, you can tag them on Lara Notes with Shared Offline: it’s a way to remember who was there when a conversation really mattered. That was The Economist, and compared to the original article, you’ve saved almost a minute of reading time.