China has won.

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its manufacturing value added was half that of the United States. Today, it is twice as high. Over the past twenty years, the center of global production has shifted so dramatically that, among the ten most important commercial ports in the world, none are located in Europe or the United States anymore: six are in China, and one is in Singapore. Here is the first major shift: we are already living in the Asian century. The idea that the future will see Asia as a leading player is no longer a prediction; it is the reality that surrounds us. The Western model, especially the American one, is no longer the sole benchmark for growth, innovation, and education. The argument is this: China has won. Not in the sense that it has become the new America, but because it has set its own rules in many of today's key challenges: from manufacturing to clean technologies, from the semiconductor supply chain to the ability to plan over the long term. And this victory has a face: Wang Huning. A professor of political science in Shanghai, a translator of Western classics, and a curious traveler who, in the 1980s, traversed the United States to study the secret of its strength. In his book “America vs. America,” he is struck by America’s ability to pass on a passion for science to younger generations: at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago, he notes that even parking is free, because access to knowledge must be universal. But Wang also sees all the contradictions: wealth alone cannot solve social problems, and Silicon Valley is a realm of both innovation and homelessness. In 1995, Wang left his academic career to join the core of the Chinese Communist Party. Since then, he has been the only intellectual to remain at the top under three different leaders, the man who brought to the decision-makers the idea that America’s true adversary is… America itself, capable of self-sabotage. His vision has become China’s strategy: learn everything from the West, then surpass it by focusing on education, industry, and a conception of time that looks to millennia, not decades. Here is the striking fact: China now has twice the manufacturing capacity of the United States, and in the rankings of artificial intelligence patents, almost only Chinese and American entities appear, with Chinese universities such as Zhejiang ahead of giants like Google and Microsoft. And it’s not just a question of numbers: State Grid Corporation, which operates China’s power grid (and also holds a stake in Italy’s grid), is among the world’s top ten holders of AI patents. Chinese innovation is practical, rooted in infrastructure and real manufacturing, not just in software. But the statement that turns everything on its head comes from Michael Froman, now president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. Trade Representative. In an article in Foreign Affairs, he writes: “In the war to set the rules, the battle is over; at least for now, China has won.” And history warns us against false prophecies: in the 1980s, everyone was certain that Japan would overtake America. That didn't happen, because Japan lacked autonomous foundations, as well as the necessary demographic or military scale. But China, with its five-year plans and one hundred million Party members, is different: it thinks and acts for the long term, considers itself the heir to an ancient civilization, and uses this awareness to position itself as the world's center of gravity. What is the West lacking? The ability to move from theory to practice. Take the case of rare-earth elements: for fifteen years, the end of dependence on China has been heralded, yet China still controls the global supply chain. Or take manufacturing: The United States relies on Asian human capital to innovate, but it is failing to rebuild a domestic manufacturing base. And this is where the term “paper tiger” comes into play: without Chinese and Indian talent, Silicon Valley would collapse. The paradox is that American universities remain the global magnet for the best minds: in the last academic year, 330,000 Indian students and 277,000 Chinese students were studying in the U.S. However, more and more often, talented individuals are choosing to stay in their home countries. There is a risk of self-sabotage: while China continues to invest in education, science, and infrastructure, America is becoming divided, cutting back on immigration, arguing over its universities, and losing its knack for getting things done. But beware: China's victory is partial and perhaps temporary. China’s population is aging, India is already younger and more populous, and China’s authoritarian system will, sooner or later, have to grapple with an existential challenge between economic prosperity and the demand for freedom. But the lesson for Europe is clear: over the next fifteen years, before the demographic tide turns, if we lose manufacturing and the electronics industry, it will not be enough to wait for a new historical cycle. The key takeaway is this: China won because it was able to turn knowledge into power and strategy into reality. If this story resonates with you, on Lara Notes you can press I'm In — it's not a like; it's your way of saying: This idea is now mine. And if tomorrow you tell someone that China has doubled U.S. manufacturing output or that parking at the Museum of Science in Chicago was free for a specific reason, you can mark it on Lara Notes: “Shared Offline” is your way of saying that conversation mattered. This Note is from Alessandro Aresu’s lecture at the Archiginnasio Municipal Library: you have saved over 75 minutes compared to the original event.