China is planning to land people on the Moon — and might beat the United States to it

What's the strangest thing about the new Moon race? Maybe it's not a race. For months, everyone has been taking it for granted that the United States will be the first country to return humans to the surface of the Moon after more than fifty years. Yet, the country that is actually in the race—and meeting its deadlines—is China. Their plans are clear: by 2030, they want to send a team of astronauts to the Moon, with the aim of building a permanent base there in collaboration with Russia. And here's the surprising part: NASA, which was supposed to return to the Moon in 2024, has already postponed everything until at least 2028 due to technical problems with the lander. If there are any more delays, China could indeed beat everyone to it. It may seem incredible, but the phrase circulating among scientists is this: “There is a chance that China will get there first.” These are the words of Quentin Parker, who heads the space research laboratory in Hong Kong. Behind this confidence lies a key fact: since 2007, China has never missed a major deadline in its lunar programs. In 2019, they landed a robot on the far side of the Moon—something never seen before. In 2020, they brought home the first Chinese lunar samples. And in 2024, they returned to the far side to collect rocks. These are not just demonstration missions: they are already testing the Mengzhou spacecraft, meaning “dream vessel,” and the Lanyue lander, meaning “embrace the Moon.” The striking detail: the Mengzhou can carry up to seven people into Earth orbit, but for the Moon, it will carry around three. The next uncrewed test is scheduled for the near future on the Tiangong space station. And when the time comes to land, they already have 14 different sites in mind. One of these sites is called Rimae Bode, and, as Jun Huang, a planetary geologist in Wuhan, explains, “landing there would be like opening a high-definition history book of the Moon,” because the site contains material from the deep mantle and debris from ancient impacts. In this way, we will understand not only the history of the Moon, but perhaps also that of the Earth. And here comes the real twist: everyone thinks this is a geopolitical race, a sort of throwback to the 1960s. But the reality is that the American motivation appears more tenuous than the Chinese one. Bhavya Lal, a former NASA executive, has written that for the United States, the drive to build a lunar base stems almost entirely from the competition with China. However, she argues that such a motivation may not be enough to sustain the effort for decades. Meanwhile, China, operating in silence, continues to build, to test, and to meet deadlines. Meanwhile, the United States makes announcements, postpones plans, and ponders. Meanwhile, there is a detail that few people notice: both NASA and China are targeting the lunar South Pole, where water ice is believed to be present. If they manage to extract it and turn it into fuel, the first country to get there will have a huge advantage – not only symbolic, but also technological and strategic. Some say this is a one-way race: the United States talks about a “geopolitical adversary,” but perhaps the real challenge is to overcome its own delays, not China. Here is the takeaway: China could be the first country to send humans back to the Moon since 1972. If this story makes you see the Moon in a different light, on Lara Notes you can press I'm In—it's a way of saying that this idea really matters to you now. And if you tell someone about it tomorrow, you can end that conversation with Shared Offline: that way, the other person will also know it was important to you. This content is from Nature, and it saved you about 8 minutes compared to the original article.