Electrostates vs. Petrostates

Imagine that the real Cold War of our time is not between democracy and communism, but between those who control oil and those who dominate solar panels. It is no longer a question of ideologies: today, the struggle for global power is played out over who owns the energy infrastructure that keeps the world running. Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England and now Prime Minister of Canada, said in Davos that the liberal international order is dead, and that there is no going back. But the real rupture goes beyond the end of the rules written after World War II: it is the very decline of the fossil-fueled industrial model that made that order possible. On one side is the “electrostates” bloc, led by China, which has staked everything on renewables and batteries. On the other side is the “Petrostate Axis”: the United States under Trump, Russia, and the Gulf monarchies, which defend oil and gas at all costs and use them as a geopolitical weapon. The divide is no longer between capitalism and communism, but between two opposing metabolisms: those who want to replace fossil-fuel-based infrastructure with electricity-based infrastructure, and those who are trying to block the transition in order to maintain their power. Take China: in less than two decades, it has gone from being the planet’s worst polluter to dominating every link in the green chain. Today, it controls 90% of rare-earth processing, 94% of the permanent magnets essential for electric motors and turbines, over 80% of solar panels, and more than 70% of batteries and electric vehicles. Not only that: nearly half of its green exports go to emerging markets, making China the linchpin for anyone seeking to decarbonize. But beware: joining the green bloc means adopting Chinese hardware, standards, and systems, with the risk of a new technological dependency. On the other hand, Trump’s United States has not only cut subsidies for green technologies, but has also rebranded fossil fuels as a symbol of national strength. The strategy? To support coal, gas, and oil power plants in the Global South with central government funding and to pressure European allies to sign 20-year contracts for U.S. liquefied natural gas. And when necessary, threatening to seize the Strait of Hormuz in order to control the global flow of oil. Within the oil axis, some players are dealing with staggering figures: Saudi Arabia produces oil at less than $10 per barrel, a price that allows it to survive any price war, crushing anyone who attempts to make the transition. But this alliance is far from stable: the United States and Russia are still at loggerheads in Ukraine, Moscow and Riyadh are rivals in many proxy wars, and both engage in climate disinformation to slow down change, yet they remain competitors on the global market. In the middle are the “middle powers”: countries such as India, Brazil, and Indonesia, but also France, Japan, and Canada. For them, the choice is a dead end: remaining tied to the fossil fuel bloc means risking environmental disaster, but relying on China means accepting a new form of dependence. And once an energy infrastructure has been built—be it gas or electricity, American or Chinese—turning back becomes extremely costly, if not nearly impossible. Some are seeking a third way, drawing inspiration from the Non-Aligned Movement of the 1950s and 1960s, but today the game is more cynical: not solidarity among former colonies, but mineral purchasing clubs, tailor-made technology agreements, and strategies to maximize one’s autonomy. This is the case for resource-rich countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan, which host investments from both the green bloc and the fossil-fuel bloc, getting the most out of both. In Africa, too, entrepreneurs are combining Chinese hardware and Western software to create local solutions that do not depend on any superpower. However, this new non-alignment is fragile: oil producers have no interest in ending the fossil-fuel era, while those exposed to climate change want the opposite. The result? A fragmented galaxy of issue-based alliances, with no true third pole. Ultimately, the question for these countries is: What kind of modernity do they want? The petrostate bloc promises low-cost energy but carries significant risks of cronyism and dependency; the Chinese bloc offers green efficiency but poses the threat of a new technological “Leviathan.” The real new development today is that the future is no longer decided between democracy and dictatorship, but between those who control the power grids, the minerals, and the data that fuel civilization. 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