How China Reinvented the BRI

In 2025, everyone had written off China's Belt and Road Initiative, the famous “New Silk Road.” Instead, not only did it survive, but it surpassed its 2016 peak in project value: Last year, $213.5 billion was invested in BRI projects, while China's trade surplus reached a record high of nearly $1.2 trillion. But the real twist is that the BRI is no longer a gigantic operation focused on bridges, roads, and railways: today, it has become the main weapon of Beijing’s industrial policy, a tool for exporting China’s production surplus, dominating cutting-edge technology sectors such as green tech, and securing supply chains for critical minerals. And the paradox? The more the West erects barriers through tariffs and duties, the more the BRI gains strength and undergoes transformation. The United States has raised its average tariffs on Chinese imports to 16%, the highest level since 1936. The European Union has imposed tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicles. Yet, instead of collapsing, the BRI has simply adapted: it now serves to relocate Chinese production to countries with lower tariffs, so that “Made in China” products still reach Western markets via “bridge countries” such as Vietnam, Morocco, or Hungary. One example: BYD, the Chinese electric car giant, opened a factory in Hungary to circumvent European tariffs on cars assembled in China, thereby securing “Made in Europe” status for its vehicles. And instead of investing in Vietnam, Boway Alloys opted for Morocco, where the U.S. tariff is only 10%. At the same time, the BRI is now focusing heavily on the Global South, particularly Africa, where BRI projects grew by 283% in 2025 to over $61 billion, and Chinese exports to the continent increased by 18%. But it's not just about selling products: China is investing heavily in copper, aluminum, and lithium mines in countries such as Kazakhstan, the Congo, and Indonesia to secure the strategic raw materials of the future. And here comes another surprise: the “new” BRI is by no means entirely green. In 2025, BRI oil and gas contracts totaled $71.5 billion, more than any investment in clean energy. And despite Beijing’s promise to no longer finance coal-fired power plants abroad, billions continue to flow into “off-grid” facilities that power Chinese mines and industries around the world. All of this is no coincidence, but rather a deliberate strategy to address a serious domestic problem: China produces too much and consumes too little. In 2025, around 24% of Chinese industrial companies were operating at a loss, kept afloat by public loans and subsidies amounting to 4.5% of GDP. To survive, they must export at all costs. That’s why exports of green technologies – electric cars, batteries, solar panels – have skyrocketed: last year alone, exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels increased by 27%, while wind turbines rose by as much as 48%. But there is also a new weapon: not just roads and ports, but a network of trade agreements and free trade pacts that serves as the “software” for the BRI. China has concluded mega-agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which covers 30% of the global economy, and has completely eliminated tariffs on products from 53 African countries. In this way, Beijing is building a trade bloc centered on itself, which is difficult to circumvent even for Washington. Yet this Chinese victory comes at a hidden cost for emerging countries: local industries risk being crushed by Chinese competition, as is already happening in Southeast Asia in the steel and textile sectors. The risk is that the Global South will end up trapped in the “middle-income trap,” never developing its own industries. This is where the real game changer lies: while the West is planning to isolate China with tariffs, Beijing has turned those very walls into launching pads for its new global industrial offensive. And far from being dead, the BRI has become the safety net for the Chinese economy. Today, the BRI doesn't just connect cities and ports: it connects strategic interests, industries, resources, and markets, making China nearly impossible to isolate. If you thought tariffs had cornered China, you only need to look at the numbers to see that the game has merely switched sides. On Lara Notes, there’s a gesture you won’t find anywhere else: I’m In. It's not a heart; it's not a thumbs-up. It's your declaration: this perspective now concerns you. And if, in a few days, you find yourself saying, “I heard something crazy about how China is circumventing tariffs,” on Lara Notes, you can go back and tag the people who were with you. It's called Shared Offline. This Note comes from Foreign Policy and saved you about 18 minutes compared to the original article.