How Putin Escalates

In July 2026, for the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian support for Putin's “special” operation dropped to 50%. Just a year earlier, it was almost seventy percent. This was a sudden drop in a system where public perception is managed as a strategic asset. Today's argument is this: Putin's escalation is not a sign of strength, but of weakness. The more Russian society grows weary and disillusioned, the more the Kremlin turns up the volume, both inside and outside its borders, to avoid losing control. The dominant narrative is that Putin is always one step ahead, that every repressive crackdown or military strike is part of a cold-blooded plan. But the data and anecdotes tell a completely different story: when legitimacy crumbles, power clings to escalation as its only glue. A name you cannot forget: Lev Shlosberg, one of the leaders of Yabloko, the last truly anti-war party still legal in Russia. In September, he was sentenced to eleven years in prison — not for acts of violence, but for voicing peaceful opposition. His removal from the elections was just the tip of the iceberg: the Kremlin orchestrated the vote as a ritual of compulsory loyalty, from the bureaucracy to state-owned companies, right down to the annexed regions. Even the votes for the “opposition” parties are, in reality, orchestrated from above and only serve to simulate pluralism. Beneath the surface, however, Russians feel the weight of the war: lines for gasoline are compounded by digital blackouts, runaway inflation, and the constant fear of a new military mobilization. The Levada Center, one of the few remaining independent institutions, found that two-thirds of citizens have problems with the internet and messaging apps. One-third experience daily inconveniences due to a lack of fuel. But the most thought-provoking figure is this: while support for the war is declining, the number of people who, exhausted, would even prefer a military escalation to “end the game” rather than accept compromises is growing. It is a paradox: fatigue fuels the desire for a twist. In this climate, Putin is multiplying symbolic gestures: not only speeches and trips, but also the rediscovery of relics such as those of Prince Donskoy, enlisted to “spiritually strengthen” soldiers at the front. In Moscow, the line to see the relics of Saint Spyridon seemed almost like a second call to the polls. The war enters into liturgy and everyday life, until every form of normality seems like an imitation. But the real step-up, the one that worries even the most cynical of the apparatchiks, is taking place on two fronts: internal repression and external threats. The Duma has raised VAT to 22%, especially burdening those who produce and work outside the large conglomerates. The crackdown on “foreign agents” deprives anyone suspected of dissent of political and economic rights, even if they have emigrated. Meanwhile, the most unscrupulous advisers — such as Pyotr Tolstoy, a former TV host who is now vice president of the Duma — go so far as to call for direct attacks against the enemy civilian population, in a verbal escalation that now borders on hysteria. But here comes the twist: the real crisis of Putinism is not military, but existential. It is the crisis of a system that no longer knows where to go and prolongs the war only to survive another winter. In the West, there is a tendency to interpret every move by the Kremlin as proof of absolute control, but they are often desperate reactions to a reality that is spiraling out of control. An example? The sham election itself: anyone who voted, even if only to “avoid trouble,” is now complicit in the conflict. There is no longer a clean way out. Yet, if internal pressure were to explode — due to hunger, fear, or exhaustion — Putin's legitimacy could crumble faster than one might imagine. There is one question that no one dares to ask anymore in Moscow: how long can a society that lives solely on mobilization and propaganda last? If you think escalation always means strength, look at Russia today: the more the pressure mounts, the more the system shows its cracks. If this idea struck a chord with you, on Lara Notes, you can press I'm In and choose whether it's just curiosity or a deep-seated conviction. And if tomorrow you find yourself telling someone about the Russian paradox — where fatigue fuels escalation — on Lara Notes, you can tag those who were with you with Shared Offline: because certain conversations shouldn't be forgotten. The article is from Foreign Affairs and saves you 8 minutes of reading.