If China Invades Taiwan | The Great Continent

Ten trillion dollars: that is the amount the world risks losing if China invades Taiwan. In practical terms, the combined GDP of Germany, France, and Italy would vanish in one fell swoop. It sounds like science fiction, but this is a concrete estimate: a naval blockade alone could cause between $2 trillion and $5 trillion in global losses, and a full-scale invasion would cause far more damage. The biggest mistake European governments and analysts are making today is to think that these figures are mere scaremongering, or that geographical distance truly protects them. Instead, according to Andreas Fulda, the real threat is not just the concrete risk of war, but the fact that Europe continues to stand idly by, unable to translate its vital interests into a strategy that is credible in Beijing’s eyes. Taiwan is not just an Asian issue: it is the dam that separates the world order we know from a new era of instability. The protagonist of this story is precisely Andreas Fulda, a German political scientist and Sinologist, who coined a simple but powerful expression: the “self-fulfilling prophecy.” In other words, openly describing what would happen if China attacked Taiwan does not serve to scare people, but rather to make the scenario so clear and so costly that it convinces everyone – including the Chinese – that it is not worth trying. Fulda is not speaking only as an academic: he has seen up close how China is preparing public opinion and its military elites for the idea of “reunification.” A human touch? In 2022, live on French TV, Chinese Ambassador Lu Shaye stated bluntly: “We will re-educate the Taiwanese. I am sure they will once again become patriots.” This was no slip of the tongue: the same message has been repeated by other ambassadors, such as Xiao Qian in Australia. At the same time, in Kaohsiung, Taiwanese soldiers train every day to repel an invasion, while Beijing sends hundreds of aircraft and ships around the island. The numbers are striking: over 20% of the world's maritime traffic passes through the Taiwan Strait, and 60% of the world's semiconductors are shipped from there. If China were to blockade or conquer the island, global chip production would plummet by 85% in the event of war, with impacts worse than those of COVID-19. But the real game changer is realizing that Europe's stance – especially Germany's – is not neutral: it is already a choice. Berlin continues to invest billions in China even after criticizing its support for Russia. Major German companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, and BASF are lobbying to maintain the current course, making Europe vulnerable. The result? The EU remains unable to speak with a single voice and to truly defend its strategic interests. Some, such as the sinologist Estelle Huang or the analysts Aylin Matlé and Valentin Weber, are pushing for Europe to support Taiwan not only out of solidarity, but also to strengthen its own security and autonomy. Yet many professors and think tanks continue to parrot Beijing's rhetoric: they claim that the “one China” policy should not be tampered with, that provoking China would be unwise, and that stability is more important than Taiwan's freedom. This way of thinking, says Fulda, is not neutrality; it is strategic short-sightedness: it is the same mistake made with Russia before the invasion of Ukraine. However, there is a perspective that is rarely discussed: if Europe truly found the courage to form a coalition of volunteers to support Taiwan, it would not be merely a symbolic gesture. It would be a concrete investment in collective security—and perhaps the first step towards finally giving the Union real geopolitical clout. The bottom line is this: defending Taiwan is not an act of aggression, but an insurance policy for world peace. If this story has given you a new perspective, you can mark it on Lara Notes with I'm In — it's not a like; it's a way of saying that this idea matters to you. And if you happen to discuss it with someone over dinner or at the office, you can tag them on Lara Notes with Shared Offline: that way, that conversation remains important even outside the app. That was “Si la Chine envahit Taiwan” from Grand Continent—you saved yourself almost 20 minutes of reading.