'Self-termination is most likely': the history and future of societal collapse

Goliath's Curse: Why Inequality Dooms Civilization—and How We Might Still Turn the Tide. Picture the sweep of 5,000 years of human societies not as a march of progress, but as a cycle of rise and collapse, driven not by the flaws of ordinary people, but by the ambitions of power-hungry elites. Drawing on an epic survey of more than 400 fallen societies, this analysis reveals a striking pattern: we are fundamentally egalitarian by nature, but again and again, civilizations—what the author provocatively calls “Goliaths”—emerge when small groups monopolize resources, power, and violence. These Goliaths, whether ancient empires or today's global system, are built on surplus food that can be taxed and hoarded, weapons in the hands of the few, and populations trapped in lands where escape from domination is impossible. Over centuries, these patterns repeat: as inequalities deepen, as elites hoard more and more, societies become fragile, hollowed out from within until a shock—war, plague, or environmental change—brings them crashing down. But here's the twist. For ordinary people, collapse has often meant liberation: a break from crushing taxes, a return to healthier, freer ways of living. Yet today's world presents a new and far grimmer scenario. Our interconnected global system, utterly dependent on fragile infrastructures and dominated by a handful of powerful actors, faces threats on a scale never before seen—climate breakdown, nuclear arsenals, artificial intelligence run amok, engineered pandemics. In a system where everyone is bound together and so many rely on complex technology, collapse would be catastrophic for all. At the heart of this danger are what the analysis calls “agents of doom”—small, secretive, ruthlessly competitive cliques, often led by individuals who exemplify the darkest traits of narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellian cunning. These are the drivers of arms races, environmental destruction, and runaway technological risk. The problem isn't human nature—it's the unchecked dominance of the few over the many. Yet, the story is not all doom. There is a path out: radically democratizing our societies, breaking up concentrations of wealth and power, and harnessing our innate capacity for cooperation and fairness. Imagine societies governed by citizens' assemblies, where wealth is capped and decision-making is transparent and collective. It sounds utopian, but history shows that more democratic societies are more resilient. The real challenge is psychological and cultural. We have been conditioned for millennia to accept domination as inevitable, to believe it's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of elite rule. But our true nature, the analysis insists, is cooperative, social, and anti-dominance. Even if the odds are long, the call is to resist: to refuse to participate in systems of domination, to share power, to demand honesty and accountability. Whether optimism is warranted or not, the case is made for defiance—standing up for democracy, equity, and the planet, not because victory is assured, but because it is the right thing to do. In the shadow of Goliath, what matters is that we do not become part of the problem.