Space WAR Has Already Begun

In 2023, news emerged about a mysterious Russian satellite orbiting in a nearly unknown path, and concerns grew that this could mark the start of a nuclear arms race in space. However, the most destabilizing truth is that the space warfare race is not something futuristic or fictional—it is a reality that began years ago; we just don't see it from beneath the clouds. We typically imagine space wars as involving missiles or lasers, like in Hollywood movies, but today, space attacks often occur silently: by jamming GPS signals, launching cyberattacks on communications satellites, or even maneuvering a satellite to approach another one and potentially attaching a device or disabling it with a robotic arm. The prevailing perception is that space is a “neutral” place, or even a symbol of shared human progress. However, the truth is that space has now become a strategic battlefield, and most major militaries—from the United States and China to Russia—now have dedicated branches to manage this domain, and each one is actively testing space attack and defense capabilities, sometimes under the guise of scientific experimentation and sometimes with clear propaganda messages. Two people are putting faces to this war: Jonny Harris, the journalist who told this story, and Clayton Swoboda, a space policy expert at the CSIS Center in Washington, D.C. Clayton makes a striking point: a satellite is not just a piece of metal quietly orbiting; today, it has become like the nervous system of modern armies—enabling global visibility, positioning, missile tracking, battlefield communications, and even the detection of submarines hidden in mountains or the depths of the sea. Imagine that every smartphone in your pocket relies on 30 GPS satellites operated by the U.S. government, and that every part of this infrastructure can be disrupted or targeted in an attack. Johnny himself admits that he used to think satellites flew using jet engines, until he discovered that they are “constantly falling,” in a balance between speed and gravity, and that the U.S., Chinese, and Russian militaries have satellites the size of a bus orbiting at altitudes ranging from 400 to 20,000 kilometers above our heads. Then there's the story of the Chinese satellite SJ-21: reportedly launched to clean up space debris, it demonstrated a terrifying capability—it approached a defunct satellite, picked it up with a robotic arm, and pushed it into a “graveyard orbit.” This ability to maneuver and directly attack other satellites represents an unprecedented military revolution: sabotage no longer requires a missile or an explosion; it is now enough for one machine to approach another and quietly alter its trajectory or disable it. China is not alone: The United States and Russia are also testing satellites capable of approaching, maneuvering, and possibly carrying out covert attacks that are not announced to the world. Even today, the most powerful actual attacks are not bombings but cyberattacks: in 2022, Ukrainian communications satellites were disabled in the run-up to the Russian invasion by a cyberattack that a Ukrainian official described as “catastrophic.” For its part, China has developed software capable of taking control of enemy satellites or disabling them completely, without firing a single shot. What is even more frightening is that efforts to protect this domain are outpacing any effective international regulation: the only treaty prohibiting the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space is half a century old, and today, Russia and the United States are trading accusations and using veto power at the United Nations instead of agreeing on clear rules. All this is happening at a time when the number of satellites orbiting Earth has surpassed 12,000, and constellations from companies like Elon Musk's Starlink are providing internet access to isolated communities and to the military in Ukraine. A point no one anticipates: The cost of launching satellites has dropped dramatically thanks to private companies like SpaceX, making the militarization of space more feasible than ever, and scientists are now complaining about visual pollution caused by crowded orbits. Now, if you think that war in space is all about defense, remember that a large part of these capabilities can be converted for offensive purposes: the missile shield that was a dream in the 1980s “Star Wars” program is back today as the Space Iron Dome, and Elon Musk is the most prominent candidate to build it. There is always concern about the resurgence of the idea of placing a nuclear warhead in orbit, despite the enormous danger of doing so—just one explosion could destroy hundreds of satellites through electromagnetic pulses, as experiments during the Cold War have shown. But the race continues because each side fears that the other will outdo it, while space itself remains a “wild west” with no police and no clear rules. If you want a perspective that no one has focused on: all these space-based offensive and defensive capabilities threaten not only militaries, but also our daily lives. If the GPS system or communications satellites were suddenly disrupted in a conflict, no one knows what the world would be like—from navigation to the internet to emergency services. In the absence of binding rules, each side is developing capabilities in secret and publicly displaying them for deterrence, or even for blackmail. To sum it all up: The space arms race has already begun, and we depend on space more than we realize, but it will remain the most dangerous arena of confrontation until countries draw a clear red line there. If you feel that this story has revealed a new perspective on our relationship with space to you, on Lara Notes you can use the I'm In gesture – it's a declaration that this perspective has become part of you, not just a passing thought that passed through your mind. And if you find yourself discussing these risks with a friend over dinner or in the car, Shared Offline is the way to use Lara Notes to record that the conversation had real meaning for both of you. This Nota was created by Johnny Harris and saved you over 45 minutes of video and analysis.