The coming global food crisis

There is a paradox that no one wants to acknowledge: a war can cause global food supplies to plummet—not only in the countries involved, but everywhere. It doesn't take bombs in our cities for hunger to arrive: a distant crisis is enough, and wheat and corn prices skyrocket everywhere. Here's the argument: We think that hunger is a local tragedy, confined to war zones or poor countries. But the truth is that the global food system is so interconnected that a regional conflict can turn into a global food crisis. And true hunger does not end with the cessation of hostilities: its effects persist, and they hit the most vulnerable first. Take David Beasley, former Executive Director of the World Food Programme. When the war broke out in Ukraine in 2022, he reported that the price of bread in African markets doubled in three weeks. In Ethiopia, he met mothers who bartered clothes and household items for a bag of flour. A woman named Amina in southern Somalia told him, “I'm not afraid of the guns; I'm afraid I won't be able to feed my children.” And behind these stories lies a staggering statistic: according to the FAO, over 345 million people are at risk of acute hunger today, double the number compared to five years ago. How did we get to this point? 30% of the world's wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine. If the Black Sea is blocked, half of North Africa will be left without bread. And Iran, if hit by sanctions or war, is a hub for fertilizers and supplies: if it goes down, the global harvest will suffer. But the real issue is that the effects do not end with the war. After a famine, families sell their livestock and fields to survive. When peace is restored, they no longer have anything to grow: hunger persists for years, even if prices fall. And here comes the missing perspective: we are used to thinking that sending aid or money is enough to solve the problem. Instead, the real solution is to build up local food stocks, invest in local agriculture, and reduce dependence on major exporters. Without this, any political crisis can turn into a global food crisis. It all comes down to one sentence: the hunger of the future is decided today, far from public view, within the global food supply chains. If this perspective has resonated with you, on Lara Notes you can press I'm In — it's not a heart; it's a way of saying that this idea is now part of your way of thinking. And when you talk about it with someone, on Lara Notes you can mark that moment with Shared Offline: tag the person, and they'll know that the conversation really mattered to you. This Note comes from the Financial Times: it took you less than 5 minutes, instead of wasting ten minutes on subscriptions and searches.