The End of the Longest Peace?

The Fragile Legacy of the Long Peace. For nearly eighty years, the world has witnessed an extraordinary phenomenon: the absence of war between great powers. This stretch of “long peace” stands out as a historical anomaly, especially when compared to the violence that shaped earlier centuries. The devastation of two world wars forced leaders to imagine a new order, one that would deliberately avoid repeating the same catastrophic mistakes. Out of the ashes, they built international structures and alliances, managed nuclear threats, and fostered global cooperation, all in an effort to prevent another round of great-power conflict. Three numbers encapsulate this achievement: eighty years since the last major war between great powers, eighty years since nuclear weapons were used in combat, and only nine countries possessing nuclear arsenals—far fewer than once feared. These milestones have allowed the world's population to triple, life expectancy to soar, and economies to flourish. Yet, this peace did not happen by accident or simply by virtue of luck. It required bold diplomacy, creative problem-solving, and at crucial moments, cooperation even among rivals. The Cold War, with its doctrine of mutually assured destruction, was at the heart of maintaining this uneasy balance. The threat of nuclear annihilation forced both sides to prioritize survival over ideology. Meanwhile, sweeping initiatives helped rebuild economies, encourage development, and promote rules-based cooperation. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the world faced a new test: preventing the spread of nuclear weapons among newly independent states. Through determined partnership and pragmatic policies, thousands of nuclear weapons were secured and dismantled, narrowly averting chaos. But today, this long peace is under threat. The collective memory of war's horrors is fading, especially among younger generations. As nations like China rise and challenge the established order, tensions are mounting. Russia, still armed with a formidable nuclear arsenal, is determined to assert its influence, even through force. The economic landscape has also shifted: America's once-overwhelming dominance has waned, giving way to a multipolar world where no single country can set the rules unilaterally. Domestically, deep political divisions erode the ability to act decisively on the global stage. Military overreach in conflicts of secondary importance has sapped attention and resources from more pressing threats. Meanwhile, the global taboo against nuclear use, which has survived close calls and dangerous brinkmanship, is showing signs of strain as new crises emerge. The question now is whether the world can muster the imagination and resolve to preserve this exceptional era of peace. History warns that such periods are fleeting, undone by rivalry, complacency, and the failure to adapt. The challenge is to learn from the past, recognize the perils of the present, and summon the strategic vision needed to keep the long peace alive for future generations.