“U.S. vs. China: A Global Showdown Between Empires | Dario Fabbri”

When we talk about empires today, the most surprising thing is that the real secret lies not in military strength or in the economy, but in the narrative they manage to construct about themselves. Take the United States: it's not just a superpower; it always presents itself as the bearer of a mission—defending democracy, protecting rights, helping the rest of the world. It's not just propaganda; they really believe it, at least in part. An empire only works if those who are part of it believe it is a force for good, not just an act of arrogance. And China? Here's the twist: contrary to popular belief, China is still a “limping” empire precisely because it has not yet found a compelling global mission. Even when the Americans are selective and pursue their own interests, they manage to convince their allies that being part of their system is better than being left out. For now, the Chinese present themselves as leaders of the “last of the earth,” the so-called Global South, but their narrative still lacks the power of the American one. Dario Fabbri puts it bluntly: “An empire cannot be merely self-referential; it must present itself as a journey for all of humanity.” Xi Jinping tries, but China remains more insular: even the original word for “China” in Mandarin means “Middle Kingdom,” the center of the world, not something that travels to others. Add one more fact that shifts the perspective: today, the average age in China is 41; in the 1970s, it was 19. Italy’s average age is 46.7, making it the oldest country in the world along with Japan, but China is rapidly catching up. This rapid aging is a ticking time bomb: not only for the economy, but also for a society’s ability to endure sacrifices and tackle a global challenge. Fabbri notes that in 2023, India surpassed China as the most populous country: a minimal difference in numbers, but psychologically huge for the Chinese, who feel the weight of declining growth and being overtaken. Then there are the internal divisions: the gap between the wealthy coast and the impoverished hinterland is a historical divide that, in times of crisis, can lead to revolutions. We saw this with Mao: the countryside versus the city, a balance that is always precarious. On the maritime front, China has the world’s largest fleet, but it doesn’t even control the seas off its own coast—so much so that it can’t even get close to Taiwan, which is only 160 kilometers (about 100 miles) away. The United States, on the other hand, controls all the strategic maritime straits and can shut down global trade for whomever it chooses. That is why, despite the desire to break away from China, globalization remains “their thing,” as Fabbri puts it: the Pax Americana is still the framework within which the world operates. However, the United States also has its weaknesses: it is not immune to aging, even if the pace is slower than in China. And the U.S. is tired of always being number one: since Pearl Harbor, it has never stopped being involved in wars or maintaining military bases and colonies around the world—from Okinawa to Puerto Rico to Guantánamo. This weighs on the American population, who at times would just like to “go home,” aided by the geographical advantage of living far from major land masses, protected by two oceans. And it is precisely this distance that is their trump card: when countries have to choose an ally between a nearby power and a distant one, they always prefer the one that is less intimidating. This is why Ukraine, Poland, Vietnam, or the Philippines turn to the United States against Russia or China, even though democracy has little to do with their political systems. In the midst of this global challenge, Europe is more of a spectator than a player: it is not a nation, it never will be, and each country has interests that are too different, especially with regard to Russia. Just consider the demands for war reparations between Poland and Germany following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Europe remains a collection of countries, each acting on its own, with the United States always standing above them and, if necessary, simply saying, “No, that can’t be done.” Italy? Its foreign policy, from Draghi to Meloni, changes little: the real job of Italian governments, says Fabbri, is to negotiate and manage European funds, which in reality are largely guaranteed by Germany. Every now and then, Italy deludes itself into thinking it has an independent role, like when it signed the memorandum on the New Silk Roads with China, but then it quickly falls back into line. And speaking of young people: according to Fabbri, Italy is the oldest country in the world; young people are the minority within a minority, and they behave like the elderly, accepting compromises that smack of old age. This stifles any revolutionary impulse. Meanwhile, Africa is poised to add nearly a billion new births over the coming decades: migration is inevitable, and demographic pressure will shift balances and power dynamics, not least because the raw materials needed for the ecological transition are located there, and everyone—China, Russia, Turkey—is already present and active. On the technological front, artificial intelligence will not be the key factor in determining who will rule the world: the gap between the United States and China has narrowed, but this remains a field where the human element outweighs technology. And what about the much-touted “Chinese century”? Fabbri is unequivocal: “I don't think we'll ever see the Chinese century.” If China wants to try, it will have to act soon, before its demographic window closes. However, the United States remains in the lead, in part because its real advantage lies not only in strength but also in distance. Others choose a distant hegemon because it is less frightening and, one day, perhaps, it may even get out of the way. Globally, democracy has never been seen as a universal value: for the majority of humanity, it is a Western principle, often associated with colonialism, and in many contexts, the community matters more than the individual. Ultimately, the game between empires is about which one can best convince others that being under its umbrella is an advantage, not a burden. An empire is an entity that can present itself so convincingly that even its “clients” believe it. If this perspective has opened a new window on the world for you, you can mark I'm In on Lara Notes: it's not a 'like'; it's a way of saying that this idea is now part of your way of thinking. And if tonight you tell someone why China is lagging behind despite its fleet, Lara Notes Shared Offline lets you record that real conversation with those who were there, because some ideas deserve to be remembered together. This Note comes from the Sarà Festival – Geopolitics and the Future, and it saved you 48 minutes.