Xi Jinping's Slow March | The Great Continent

In 2018, Xi Jinping declared that “the world is undergoing profound changes not seen in a century,” and since then, Beijing’s official narrative has been that “the East is on the rise and the West is in decline.” But here comes the first surprise: despite this ostentatious confidence, China is moving with a slowness and caution that suggest something very different from a superpower convinced that victory is in the bag. The idea that Beijing has now surpassed the United States has become a mantra, but the reality is that behind the façade lies a constant fear of economic fragility and international isolation. Here's the argument: Xi Jinping's China is not advancing with the confidence of a nation that feels destined to dominate, but with the caution of a nation that knows its power is far more fragile than it portrays. Conventional wisdom holds that, buoyed by its past growth, Beijing is now “moving full steam ahead” and preparing to replace the United States at the top of the world. However, the facts show that Xi prefers to act from the shadows, taking advantage of the gaps created by Washington’s unpredictable moves, without ever forcing his hand. And the reason for this is not so much a brilliant strategy as an awareness of the risks: a declining population, a real estate crisis, and weak domestic consumption. Even when China appears to be taking advantage of the chaos created by American wars—such as its massive purchases of oil and gas from Russia after the Iran war—it does so with the utmost caution, avoiding direct provocation. Try asking U.S. allies in Asia, such as Vietnam or Japan: distrust of China remains extremely high, because the historical memory of China's attempts to dominate the region still weighs heavily today. One episode illustrates this tension well: in October 2023, Xi Jinping flew to Cambodia, Malaysia, and Vietnam immediately after the White House imposed heavy tariffs on those countries. Officially, it was a goodwill mission. In reality, Beijing is seeking to garner support from countries that turn to China more out of necessity than out of conviction. But behind the smiles, there remains the fear of becoming Beijing's satellites. Another key detail: China continues to present itself as a technological powerhouse, but it does so at a time when its real estate market is collapsing and its birth rate is at an all-time low. China’s GDP is growing, but the United States remains stable at around 26% of the global economy: in short, overtaking the U.S. is by no means a foregone conclusion. Xi himself alternates between triumphalist tones and signs of great caution, aware that American resilience—its ability to bounce back, even after huge mistakes—remains the real obstacle today. In practice, China is shifting from rhetoric about defeating the United States to a series of operational moves, especially in the Indo-Pacific: naval patrols, drones near Taiwan, and pressure on trade routes, while still avoiding actions that could provoke a direct military response from Washington. On the domestic front, China’s leadership is experiencing a disconnect: on the one hand, propaganda about an invincible China; on the other, fear that growth will stall and public support will crumble. For Beijing, the risk is that an overly aggressive move could bring the entire house of cards down. But here’s another twist: if you think China has a perfect, coherent plan to undermine the United States, think again. The most astute analysts are beginning to see a less monolithic and much more opportunistic China – ready to change course if the domestic situation worsens, or if the United States shows signs of recovery. In this scenario, the real danger is not a monolithic Chinese power, but a nervous and unpredictable giant, where fear counts as much as ambition. Try to picture the control room in Beijing: behind the rhetoric about the “rising East,” meetings are dominated by concerns about how to prevent the real estate crisis from exploding, how to keep the purges in the military from leading to instability, and how to ensure that the confrontation with the United States does not spiral out of control. And while Xi Jinping promises that by 2027, the military will be ready to “compel Taiwan by force,” the reality is that every step is weighed a thousand times over for fear of a chain reaction. Then there is the West variable: if Russia and the United States reach an agreement on Ukraine, European fleets could shift to the Pacific, forcing China into an even more defensive position. No scenario is set in stone: China can choose the path of escalation, but it can also suddenly change course and turn inward, focusing entirely on internal stability. In short: behind the rhetoric of “American decline,” China is advancing slowly and with a thousand fears, aware that one mistake could cost it everything. The myth of China's flawless strategy conceals a much more fragile and contradictory reality. If you thought of Beijing as a self-confident giant, the truth is that its strength today is half calculation and half fear. If this overview has made you see Xi Jinping’s China in a different light, you can press I’m In on Lara Notes: it’s not a ‘like’; it’s your way of saying that this idea now matters to you. And if tomorrow you find yourself telling someone that China is not so sure of its rise, on Lara Notes you can tag that person with Shared Offline: it's a sign that the conversation was truly worthwhile. That was “Xi Jinping's Slow-Motion Lens,” adapted from Le Grand Continent: you've saved over 30 minutes of reading time here.